Illa would win the Catalan elections with nine fewer seats and Aliança would be third

The CEO barometer grants the PSC between 33 and 35 deputies, while Aliança Catalana would grow to 23-25 seats. Junts would fall to fourth place.

According to El Plural, the second wave of the Centre for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat (CEO), presented this Wednesday, confirms the trends already indicated by the previous survey. The PSC led by Salvador Illa would remain the most voted force, but with a decrease of up to nine seats.

The poll, conducted by GESOP between September 1 and October 5 with a sample of 2,000 interviews, places the socialists between 33 and 35 deputies, with 21.5% of the votes. In the 2024 elections, they obtained 42 seats and 28% of the electorate.

ERC would improve its result and move from third to second position, with between 24 and 26 seats and 17.2% of the votes. Nevertheless, the republicans would remain at least seven deputies behind the socialists.

The most striking figure is the leap of Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols. It would go from two seats to between 23 and 25, and from 3.8% of the votes to 15%. In terms of votes, it still lags behind PSC and ERC, but the territorial distribution of its electorate allows it to translate this into more deputies.

Junts, on the other hand, would drop from second to fourth place. The poll gives it between 18 and 20 seats, down from the current 35, and 14% of the votes. According to the CEO, 20% of its voters from 2024 would switch to Aliança Catalana, a lower percentage than the 28% that the previous barometer, published in July, attributed to that transfer.

Vox would also lose ground to Aliança, which would take 23% of its electorate. The far-right Spanish nationalist party would obtain between 12 and 13 seats, above the 11 from 2024, and would tie in deputies with the PP, which would drop to 9.7% of the votes from the previous 11%.

The Comuns, for their part, could obtain between 5 and 6 seats. With this distribution, the poll depicts a very fragmented Parliament, in which no block seems to secure a comfortable majority, and agreements would be, according to these figures, complicated to close.

The complete data from the CEO barometer are available on the agency's website and will serve as a reference to follow the evolution of voting preferences in Catalonia in the coming months.