The right would gain between 65 and 71 seats in Catalonia, but no possible pact

A poll by the Centre for Opinion Studies places the right between 65 and 71 seats, but Junts and Aliança Catalana cannot govern together.

According to La Razón, the latest survey from the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO) of the Generalitat points to a change of cycle in the Catalan Parliament. After nearly a decade of left-wing dominance, the right-wing parties, combined, could reach an absolute majority, with between 65 and 71 deputies compared to the 68 needed.

The bloc would include Aliança Catalana, Junts, Vox, and the PP. The emergence of Aliança, the growth of Vox, and the stabilisation of the Popular Party explain the figure. Before the decade of left-wing hegemony, the centre-right had already been in the majority thanks to the combination of Convergència and the PP.

The problem is that this space is divided in two. Junts and Aliança advocate opposing independence projects, while PP and Vox share positions with Aliança on immigration, security, taxes, and housing, but not its independence stance. None of the four parties, moreover, would pact with the forces that oppose separatism most firmly.

Within the independence movement, there is also no agreement. Junts rejects any understanding with Aliança, which it considers to be far-right. Aliança, for its part, was born with a hostile discourse towards traditional independence, so the arithmetic majority of the four parties, of up to 71 deputies, does not translate into a viable government.

The blockage is not limited to the right: traditional independence would lose the ability to achieve an absolute majority on its own.

According to the poll, ERC, Junts, and the CUP would gather between 46 and 50 deputies. Only by incorporating Aliança, with a range of between 69 and 75 seats, would they reach a majority. But ERC and the CUP place Aliança within the far-right and are part of the sanitary cordon that refuses to negotiate with it, so that combination faces a major political obstacle.

The left that invested Salvador Illa in 2024 would also not repeat a majority. The sum of PSC, ERC, and Comuns would remain between 62 and 67 deputies, one less than the majority even in the best scenario. The PSC would still be first, but would drop from the 42 current seats to between 33 and 35, while ERC would rise to 24 and 26.

To surpass the 68 seats, the left would need the CUP, which would maintain its four deputies. However, the anti-capitalists do not want to elevate a socialist to the presidency, and the only way out would be through an ERC candidate, who would come second, with the acceptance of the PSC. With these figures, the Parliament would remain without a clear government majority for any of the major political families.