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The 3 favourites to win the Ballon d'Or in 2026

We discuss who the three favourites for the 2026 Ballon d'Or will be, with the World Cup as a key factor in the race.

Leo Salguero
Leo Salguero
· 3 min read

The World Cup has completely changed the landscape of the Ballon d'Or. Until June, the race seemed to be between two or three familiar names; after the final between Spain and Argentina, the list has been reordered and now there is a handful of footballers competing for the award with almost unassailable arguments. The France Football gala will take place on 26 October in London, and for the first time the venue will not be French, which in itself says something about the moment that world football is experiencing.

Among so many names, three candidates stand out from the rest due to their impressive statistics, titles, and specific importance to their teams. None have the award secured, but all start with a season that borders on perfection.

Lamine Yamal, the one who has grown the most

With 26 goals and 21 assists this season, Lamine Yamal has stopped being a promise and has become the cornerstone of FC Barcelona. He won LaLiga, the Supercopa de España, and to top it off, he clinched the World Cup with the Spanish national team. His problem is not on the pitch, but at the polls: Rodri was named the best player of the tournament in North America, which could split the Spanish vote that, if it all went to a single candidate, would be hard to overcome.

Harry Kane, the most complete season in numbers

If we look only at the statistics sheet, no one competes with Harry Kane. The Bayern Munich forward finished the season with 46 goals and 9 assists, an astonishing feat even by his own standards. He lacks the Champions League and England once again missed out on the World Cup final, falling in the semifinals, but his candidacy has an advantage that the Spaniards do not have: he does not share the spotlight with any teammate from the national team. All the English vote, if there is one, goes to him.

Kylian Mbappé, the World Cup killer

Mbappé enters this race with the title of top scorer of the World Cup, with 10 goals, and he also finished as the top scorer of LaLiga and the Champions League this season. What detracts from his points is the absence of collective titles with Real Madrid, something that voters tend to value as much as individual statistics. Nevertheless, his impact in the tournament that weighs the most this year keeps him in the running for the top spot.

How those betting on the winner experience this race

Beyond the football debate, the Ballon d'Or has become one of those awards that also moves the betting public, who follow each Champions or league match thinking about how they can shift the odds in betting houses. It is not uncommon for many platforms to launch welcome bonuses from betting houses aimed precisely at those who want to closely follow these types of awards, comparing odds between Kane, Yamal, and Mbappé as October approaches.

The official list of the 30 nominees will be announced by France Football in the coming weeks, and that will clear up much of the uncertainty about who really enters the final race. Until then, any prediction is just that: a prediction.

Leo Salguero

Written by

Leo Salguero