Catalonia, key for Sánchez on 29-N despite the rightward shift

The most disruptive survey to date confirms the conservative shift in Catalonia, but the community remains the PSOE's stronghold and crucial for Sánchez's investiture.

The 29-N is on the horizon and Catalonia is once again the board where the investiture is decided. Although Catalan society as a whole has shifted towards more conservative positions, only the growth of VOX and PP can alter the 40 deputies who invested Pedro Sánchez in 2023. This is noted by El Confidencial, which points to a general trend in the polls.

The numbers from three years ago are the starting point: of the 48 seats that Catalonia sends to Congress, 19 went to the PSOE, 7 to Sumar, 7 to ERC, and 7 to Junts. This sum gave Sánchez the presidency. Now, the question is whether Catalonia can repeat that rescue role or if the rightward wave will prevent it.

In the analysis of the parties, Aliança Catalana is not running in the general elections, so it is out of the equation. Junts, for its part, will act after the 29-N according to parliamentary arithmetic, as it did in 2023 when it invested Sánchez in exchange for the amnesty law.

Santiago Abascal's party has no regional strategy and will benefit from growth across Spain. It could put a candidate in Barcelona, Girona, Lleida, or Tarragona and the result would be the same. Moreover, the absence of Aliança Catalana benefits it, as both share voters who prioritise curbing immigration.

The PP, on the other hand, needs a more refined strategy in Catalonia. Decisions about its candidate and political line are made in Génova 13, but Alberto Núñez Feijóo is not satisfied with just the initials: he seeks a local corridor to strengthen his project. Sánchez's shift to the left expands the popular playing field to compete for votes from the PSOE and to snag votes from Junts among moderate Catalanists and aspirational voters of Carles Puigdemont.

The election on 29-N will determine whether Catalonia becomes the granary that supports Sánchez again or if the rightward impulse changes the direction of the investiture. The parties are already revving up with their eyes on those 48 seats at stake.