Colau would lose more than 60% of the Comuns' votes in Catalonia

A survey by the Catalan CIS, the Centre for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat, places the Comuns at only 36% of their support from 2023. The loss would mainly go to ERC and the PSC.

The electoral barometer published by the Centre for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat (CEO) on Wednesday reflects a notable decline for the Comuns. According to the vote transfer data, the party would lose 63% of the support it garnered in 2023, a blow that would directly impact the candidacy of Ada Colau if she were to run in the general elections on 29-N. This information was reported by El Mundo, which details the calculation.

The largest transfer of votes would go to ERC, which, according to the survey, would attract 24% of the Comuns' voters. The list led by Gabriel Rufián would thus benefit from the decline of Colau's party. The fieldwork was conducted between 1 September and 5 October, before Rufián confirmed that he would run again as a candidate.

Since then, there has been a significant change: ERC announced it would incorporate members of Podemos, which will not run in Catalonia and will ask for votes for the republicans. Therefore, the survey does not yet reflect this movement, which could alter the figures. Nevertheless, the poll already estimates that Podemos would take away 19% of the votes from the Comuns.

Another 14% of the Comuns' voters would switch to the PSC, which runs under its own name but later contributes its deputies to the PSOE. Colau's party would retain only 36% of its voters, compared to 75% for ERC and 72% for the PSC, according to the same barometer.

In terms of seats, the CEO predicts that the PSC will repeat with between 18 and 19 deputies, compared to 19 in 2023. ERC would rise to 11 seats, up from the current seven. The PP would maintain its six deputies or gain one, and Vox would increase from two to between five and six.

Junts would have between four and five parliamentarians, losing up to three. The biggest drop would be for Sumar, which ran alongside the Comuns and Podemos and would fall from seven deputies to between two and three.