Vox could triple its MPs in Catalonia on November 29, according to the CEO

The latest CEO barometer places Vox between five and six MPs in Catalonia, up from two in 2023. ERC would be the second force, just behind the PSC.

There is just over one month to go until the general elections on November 29, and Catalonia arrives at the event with an important change: Aliança Catalana, the party of Sílvia Orriols, will not be running. According to ABC, some polls had already placed it with 30 MPs in the Parlament, tied with the PSC, so one must wonder where that vote will go.

The main beneficiary of this growth would be Vox, the party of Santiago Abascal. According to the barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat, published on October 14, the party would increase from two MPs to a range of between five and six. Its voting intention would rise from 7.8% in the last general elections to 11%-13%.

Following Vox, ERC is the other party that is growing. It would increase from seven MPs to between ten and eleven, with between 17% and 20% of the votes, positioning itself as the second force in Catalonia, behind the PSC. The socialists would maintain almost intact their representation, with between 18 and 19 seats compared to the 19 currently.

The Popular Party would improve slightly, to between six and seven MPs, with an estimate of between 12% and 14%. In contrast, Junts would drop from seven to between four and five representatives, and the Comuns would fall from seven MPs to only two or three.

The survey is based on 2,000 interviews conducted between September 1 and October 5, so it does not reflect some subsequent movements. Among them, the decision of the CUP not to run in the elections and the agreement of Podemos not to present its own lists in Catalonia and to support ERC. For the Catalan voter, the final figures will depend on how that vote is distributed in the coming weeks.