Collboni stagnates in Barcelona as Alamany and Martí vie for second place

The PSC would lead the municipal elections of 2027 in Barcelona, but without a clear majority. A GAPS survey commissioned by Junts shows ERC and Junts in a tight race for second place.

The PSC of Mayor Jaume Collboni would remain in the lead in the municipal elections of May 2027, but without growing enough to secure a majority. This is according to a survey by the company GAPS, commissioned by Junts per Catalunya, which depicts a highly fragmented council in the Catalan capital.

According to the projection of councillors, the PSC would drop from the 10 current councillors to between 8 and 10, with a projected vote share of between 17.5% and 19.5%. ERC would grow from the 5 current councillors to between 7 and 9, with between 15.5% and 17.1% of the votes.

Junts, which currently has 11 councillors, would drop to between 6 and 8, with an estimate of between 14.3% and 16.3%. The Comuns would fall from 9 to between 5 and 7, with between 12.8% and 14.8%.

The PP would remain around its current four councillors, between 4 and 5. Aliança Catalana would enter the council with a range of between 3 and 6 councillors, and the CUP would stay close to the 5% threshold, with between 3.6% and 5.1%. Vox would increase from two to between 3 and 4.

With these figures, PSC, ERC, and Comuns would total between 20 and 26 councillors, while the independentist parties would be between 16 and 25. The absolute majority is at 22 councillors, so the final result would depend on the agreements.

The assessment of municipal management is the most delicate data for the government. Respondents give it an average score of 4.5 out of 10, and 55.9% believe that Barcelona needs a change of government. The survey concludes that the executive has not converted its electoral leadership into a clear approval of its management.

In direct voting intention, the PSC appears first with 9.9% of responses, followed by ERC with 9.1% and Junts with 7.1%. However, the margin of indecision is wide: 32.6% do not indicate any candidacy and 11.6% state that they will not vote, which adds up to 44.2% of respondents.

The authors of the study themselves warn that the ranges of councillors are not a closed result. With almost half of the respondents undecided, the pre-campaign and the campaign that will come before May 2027 could alter the distribution of seats.