Junqueras imposes ERC's confederal plan with Podemos

The alliance of ERC with Podemos for 29-N reinforces Junqueras' strategy to build a confederal front and leaves Rufián as a useful but non-decisive figure. The republican leadership maintains organic control and the identity of the party.

The decision of ERC to run in the 29-N elections in alliance with Podemos has reignited the internal debate about leadership in the party. According to elmundo.es, far from representing a victory for Gabriel Rufián over Oriol Junqueras, the move consolidates the strategy of the sector that controls the organic structure of the republicans.

The operation responds to Junqueras' plan to make ERC the benchmark for sovereignist left in Catalonia, occupying the space left by Ada Colau and reducing that of the CUP. The confluence with the purple party is not improvised: it is part of a long-term agenda to rebuild the independence base while seeking advances in the State model.

In this design, Rufián is still perceived by middle cadres and bases as an external agent who brings votes and visibility, but who does not quite fit into the core of independence. His initial intention to lead a Broad Front with Colau, Mónica García, and Irene Montero has turned into a tactical agreement with Podemos to maintain his seat in Congress.

The republican leadership, with Pere Aragonès and Joan Tardà, defended the confluence in Catalonia with the Comunes and other leftist sensitivities, integrating Elisenda Alamany as the head of the list for Barcelona and Joan Ignasi Elena in the Generalitat. But that collaboration had a limit that Rufián wanted to cross: to dilute the ERC initials in a broader front.

“There Rufián encountered the 'no' from the republican leadership and a warning: former councillor Oriol Romeva could replace him in case of rebellion.”

The final agreement allows ERC to preserve its identity and Rufián to appear as if he has won a contest, after four years of clashes with Teresa Jordà, Pilar Vallugera, and Francesc-Marc Álvaro. The leader thus maintains his presence in Madrid alongside Sarah Santaolalla, Vito Quiles, and Pablo Iglesias.

Junqueras' strategy is inspired by the old motto of Pujol of “first patience, then independence,” and involves articulating majorities in Congress that allow for a constitutional modification in a confederal key and make a self-determination referendum possible.

With Salvador Illa sinking in the polls, ERC seeks to deactivate the Comunes and threaten the PSC in the Catalan scenario, while in the Spanish context it aims to play a decisive role in the confederal opposition to a potential PP and Vox government. The unknown is the response of the traditional independence electorate of ERC, more sociologically aligned with Junts than with Podemos, to the electoral embrace with Iglesias.

The electoral calendar of 29-N will mark the first test of this alliance. The results will determine whether Junqueras' bet on the confederal front consolidates or whether, on the contrary, the republican bases punish the proximity to the state left.