Puigdemont will return to a Catalonia that only wants him as president at 5%

The former president prepares for his return following the Constitutional Court's decision on amnesty. Catalonia in 2026 prioritises housing, immigration, and security, far removed from the independence axis of 2017.

The former president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont is finalising his return to Spain after the Constitutional Court has granted amnesty for the procés, including embezzlement. The decision leaves the Supreme Court with no room to prevent his return, which is expected in the coming weeks. According to abc.es, the leader of Junts will encounter a reality very different from the one he left nine years ago.

The most striking figure is the support for his leadership: only 5% of Catalans prefer him as president of the Generalitat. His political approval rating stands at 39%, nearly twenty points lower than in 2017, when he left Spain. In a recent interview with The Sunday Times, Puigdemont himself admitted that his long stay in Waterloo (Belgium) has taken its toll.

“Although I make a constant effort to stay in touch and know the details of what is happening, I do not breathe the reality there. The current Catalonia is not the same as when I left.”

The concerns of Catalans have completely changed. In 2017, the main issue was the Catalonia-Spain relations, mentioned by 39.7% of respondents, according to the Centre for Opinion Studies. Today, access to housing tops the list at 28%, followed by immigration and public insecurity, both at 10%. These last two issues barely concerned 0.4% and 0.2% nine years ago.

The axis of the Catalan conflict has also diluted. The direct clash with the State has fallen to 2% as a priority problem. Even among Junts voters, housing (20%), political dissatisfaction (11%), and insecurity (9%) surpass relations with Spain (6%) or the Catalan identity crisis (6%).

Support for independence has decreased. If in 2017 the yes surpassed the no by six points (49% to 43%), now the opposite is true: 45% in favour and 51% against. The Parlament is, for the first time, non-independentist majority: PSC, PP, and Vox total 68 seats. Junts has 35 deputies, followed by ERC (20), CUP (4), and Aliança Catalana (2).

Precisely, the party of Sílvia Orriols has become a headache for Puigdemont. Projections place Aliança Catalana above Junts in the Parlament. Orriols has a 41% approval rating, two points more than Puigdemont, and a 27% absolute rejection, just one point more than the former president. The leader of Junts will need to stem the vote leakage towards this party.

The demographic picture is also different. Catalonia has grown from 7.55 million inhabitants in 2017 to over 8.21 million today, nearly 700,000 new residents in less than a decade. This growth partly explains the shift in priorities towards housing, public services, immigration, and security.

Voter turnout also reflects the weariness of the procés. The elections of December 2017 recorded a record 79.1%, and those of 2015, 74.9%. In 2024, only 54.8% of the electorate voted, and in 2021, 51.3%. Puigdemont will return to a Catalonia that is less mobilised and with interests different from those of nine years ago.