The PSC would win on November 29 in Catalonia and ERC would rise to second place

The PSC would remain the most voted force in Catalonia according to the CEO barometer, with between 18 and 19 deputies. ERC would consolidate its second position, while Junts and the Comuns would lose representation.

Without Aliança Catalana on the ballot, the distribution of the Catalan vote in the general elections on November 29 opens up to an electorate that until now had nowhere to go. According to ABC, the barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), published on October 14, places the PSC as the leading force in Catalonia, although with less support than in 2023.

The socialists would obtain 29.6% of the votes and between 18 and 19 deputies in Congress. This would allow them to maintain almost all the seats from 2023, but they would lose nearly five points from the 34.5% they had then.

Trailing behind is ERC, with 19% and between 10 and 11 deputies, compared to seven two years ago. The survey also gives them more margin over Junts within the independence movement represented in Madrid.

On the right, Vox would come very close to the PP. The party led by Santiago Abascal would rise to 12.2% and between five and six deputies, when in 2023 they achieved two. The popular party would remain at 13.1% and between six and seven seats, leaving the possibility of a tie in the number of deputies.

The biggest decline would be for Junts, with 10.3% and between four and five seats, and Sumar-Comuns, with 6% and between two and three deputies. The CUP appeared with 2.8% and Podemos with 2.5%, with no seats in both cases.

It is worth noting that the fieldwork was conducted between September 1 and October 5. Afterwards, the CUP announced that it would not run in the 29N elections, and Podemos chose to support ERC in Catalonia instead of presenting its own list, so the actual map could vary from the survey.