A recent study by the Barcelona Provincial Council (DIBA) has highlighted the growth potential in unregulated developments in the metropolitan area, suggesting they could accommodate up to 127,995 new inhabitants. This analysis comes at a time when local mayors are pressing the Government to regularise these areas and improve their infrastructure.
Absorption capacity and challenges
Currently, there are 88,629 registered residents in the 367 developments with urban deficits in the province. The report indicates that, if a densification process were to take place, this figure could increase to between 185,700 and 216,624 residents. However, this growth poses serious challenges for public policies due to the lack of basic services in many of these areas.
Lorena Perona, a technician in the Urban Planning area of the DIBA, clarifies that the data presented is more of a theoretical exercise: "This is not a real demographic projection, but rather the maximum total they could accommodate if fully built." This implies that the population increase is not necessarily imminent or guaranteed.
Despite this, the study highlights two key variables to understand this potential growth: on one hand, the new registered residents who could occupy vacant plots (estimated between 58,601 and 82,044), and on the other hand, those who would change their status from second residence to primary (between 38,470 and 45,951). This trend reflects a significant change in residential use within the Catalan territory.
The report also identifies the regions where the highest population increase is expected: Baix Llobregat, with up to 8,002 new inhabitants, followed by Maresme, Anoia, and Alt Penedés. In absolute terms, these areas present a significant opportunity to address the housing crisis in Catalonia.
However, this projected growth clashes with a concerning reality: many developments lack essential services such as sewage systems or drinking water. Currently, around 70,000 residents live without access to an adequate public network, raising serious doubts about future housing viability.
Lorena Perona warns of the associated risks: "Population growth could generate significant problems if current deficiencies are not resolved."
As pressure grows on the Government to address these structural issues, mayors have made three main demands: to establish a joint table between mayors and the Generalitat dedicated to developments; to ensure adequate funding sources; and to develop a specific Urban Planning Master Plan for these deficit areas.
Titled ‘Unregulated developments with urban deficits (UDU) in the Barcelona demarcation’, this research was conducted by Andrea Visioli and Oriol Nel·lo from the Group of Studies on Energy, Territory and Society in collaboration with the Autonomous University of Barcelona. The technical direction was handled by the Urban Planning Service of the DIBA.
As this debate on urban future in Catalonia progresses, it is clear that any plan must consider both the opportunities and the challenges inherent in unchecked growth without adequate infrastructure.
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